1. Field of the Invention
The present invention generally relates to cost prediction systems and more particularly to a novel system that predicts costs for future generations of technologies (for which the tooling and fabrication processes are unknown) based upon a regression analysis of current technologies.
2. Description of the Related Art
Historical cost models look back in time at what has recently been run in a fabricator in order to compute “historical” (or actual) costs of products running in the fabricator. Historical cost models can even, to a degree, be enhanced to provide predictive cost data. However, the predictive capabilities of historical cost models are limited to products that are very similar to products currently running in the fabricator (such products are sometimes called “extensions” of current products). In the semiconductor art field, the gate dimension (e.g., gate length in a transistor) is substantially the same for each technology generation. Therefore, a new technology generation (or simply “technology”) is achieved when the gate dimension is reduced by a significant portion (e.g., greater than 10%). An extension of a current technology will utilize the same gate dimension, but may include other enhancements not related to gate dimension.
Historical cost models have traditionally been less useful for costing future products that have much tighter specifications than the technology generation currently running in the fabricator. New processing techniques and tools are often required to achieve the next technology generation of gate dimension (i.e., smaller chip dimensions). Since many of these new techniques and tools do not yet exist in the fabricator, it is very difficult to accurately predict the cost of a wafer that will be running in the fabricator 1 to 5 years in the future.
At the same time, there is a desire in a highly competitive business environment to shrink groundrules and provide the next generation of technology as quickly as possible. Businesses are frequently asked to provide costs for products before they have the tools and techniques to produce them. Accurate predictive capability is required to make sound business case decisions regarding which products will be profitable now and in the future. Therefore, there is a need for a method and system that can predict the cost per wafer for future generations of technologies based solely upon historical data of known technologies.